While inflation may be slowing, Wells Fargo experts warn that Thanksgiving will still be challenging, as consumers continue to feel "the sting of higher prices."
But shoppers, still adjusting to historically high food prices, will find some relief by sticking to store-brand products, according to Wells Fargo chief agricultural economist Michael Swanson.
Swanson, along with Courtney Schmidt and Robin Wenzel of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, published a report, analyzing the cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10.
Using annual Nielsen scan data, they tracked the prices of national name-brand and store-brand ingredients including, turkey, stuffing, salad, cranberries, dinner rolls and pumpkin pie.
They discovered that the gap between the cost of a full meal using store brands and one using name-brand products is narrowing, giving consumers more reason to mix and match. However, a meal made entirely with store-brand items will still cost about $17 less, according to Wells Fargo.
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A meal using only name-brand products will cost $90 this year, a 0.5% decrease from last year’s Thanksgiving meal, the Wells Fargo report said.
The same meal prepared with store brands will cost $73, a 2.7% increase from last year, according to the report.
"Food inflation broke loose from its restraints, and many name brand food companies tried to establish the new normal, but seemingly, some of their price points were a bit too high," Swanson wrote in the report, adding that "within the grocery store, name brand and store brand food products dance a daily tango in an effort to find the perfect balance between preference and cost competitiveness."
Turkey
Wells Fargo said it's difficult to forecast the final price of Thanksgiving given that most turkey is sold in the weeks leading up to the holiday.
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However, name-brand turkeys, which account for three of four birds sold, are realizing price softness with a 2% decline compared with the same period in 2023. The store brand, which is still cheaper, indicates a price increase of 5%.
The total price difference between a 16-pound name-brand turkey and a store-brand bird is a few dollars, so Wells Fargo projected that it’s unlikely a small price differential will greatly shift the decision to store-brand over name-brand in this category.
Stuffing
Consumers can still save a few dollars by opting for the store brand, according to the report.
The price of name-brand stuffing is up 9% compared with the same time last year, while store-brand stuffing has increased by 3%, the report said.
Salad
The salad category has experienced price reductions year to date compared with 2023. Prices for name-brand products have decreased by 2%, while store brands saw a 1% decline, according to the report.
The cost difference between the name-brand and store-brand is approximately $3, in favor of the store-brand, according to the authors of the report. However, they said that cost-conscious consumers are likely to already opt for the store brand.
Cranberry picks
Projecting the price of cranberries at the time of Thanksgiving involves gauging the price momentum and current harvest, which Wells Fargo expects to be 2% larger than 2023.
The name-brand product, which holds a larger share of sales, is the lower-priced option, according to Wells Fargo.
A 12-ounce bag of name-brand fresh cranberries is down 3% compared with the same time last year, while the store-brand version is up 6%.
Dinner roll kneads
Prices for name-brand and store-brand products are up 3% compared with a year ago, which is "placing the bakery section on the high end of the food inflation range," according to the report.
The price difference between name-brand and store-brands is significant, yielding almost $4 in savings between the labels for a couple dozen dinner rolls, Wells Fargo reported.
Pumpkin pie
Pumpkin pie falls into the momentum forecasting category. The cost of name-brand pumpkin pies is up 1%, while store-brand pies have increased by 3% compared with last year, according to Wells Fargo.
The authors said "the two are essentially the same price for an 8-inch pumpkin pie," with some name-brand options still being more affordable.
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Beverages
Wells Fargo also cited data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI index, showing that beer prices are up 3.3% from this time last year. Meanwhile, wine prices have increased by 2.4%.
In the soft drink category, 12-ounce cans have risen by 1.7%, while two-liter bottles are down 10.8% compared with the same period last year.
