Joe Biden's economy has gone from bad to worse. It's not just high inflation and falling worker wages. Now, we've got higher inflation and lower growth. And that will drive wages down as well. It's called stagflation.
The GDP report came in at 1.6% for the first quarter of 2024, way down from the temporary growth spurt in last year's second half. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate in the first quarter jumped to 3.7% at an annual rate, way above the Fed's 2% target.
Now, inside the report, consumer spending slowed, capital investment slowed, inventories slumped. The trade deficit widened. So what is Joe Biden's answer on the campaign trail? Spend more, tax more, regulate more.
And that is a perfect policy storm for continued stagflation, meaning even weaker growth and higher inflation. Joe Biden is crowing over his intention to let all the successful Trump tax cuts expire. As is always the case with President Biden, his economic statements are completely counterfactual.
Now, I have gone over this ground so many times, but distinguished economist Larry Lindsey is writing that people making less than $200,000 had an average tax cut of 5.5% under Trump. Now, that's a bigger number than the 3.9% tax cut for those making over $200,000.
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Real weekly earnings during the Trump years rose 7.7% from the end of 2016 to the end of 2020. Now, these are average families. These are typical working folks. They are not rich people. And they enjoyed a virtual boom under Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, under Biden, real wages have dropped 2.9%. So let me get this right. Typical families had their income up 7.7% under Trump, but fall 2.9% under Biden. That is a 10.5% swing against Biden.
And that explains so much of why economic confidence in Trump typically runs 25 percentage points or more higher than Biden. Meanwhile, the key measure most widely used to track inequality is called the Gini coefficient.
It declined significantly under Trump. He was the first president in four decades to leave office with a lower Gini coefficient than when he entered.
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That means inequality fell during the Trump years. That is part and parcel with middle- and lower-income people seeing the biggest gains from the Trump tax cuts -- no matter what untruths Joe Biden may be spewing on the campaign trail.
Meanwhile, Biden has increased regulatory costs by $1.4 trillion, which is strangling small business, and, by the way, is killing electricity and other sources of power necessary to underpin economic growth. Plus, Biden continues to spend his keister off.
And Democratic economist Jason Furman, an honest man, has pointed out that the $500 billion or more cost of Joe Biden's plans to cancel student loans will increase inflation and increase interest rates. That includes increasing mortgage rates as well.
Basically, Biden is trying to temporarily boost consumer demand while strangling the business supply of goods and services. That is a stagflation scenario, or worse.
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Mr. Biden says he'll permanently expire the Trump tax cuts. But voters are suggesting they will permanently expire and retire Joe Biden. Think about that.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow's opening commentary on the April 25, 2024, edition of "Kudlow."
