We are seeing stirring demonstrations of democracy around the world.
In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu seemed absolutely determined to ram through a judicial overhaul – which critics say would end the independence of the courts – but delayed it yesterday after more massive street protests had him insisting he wanted to "avoid civil war."
In France, demonstrators are so angry at Emmanuel Macron for raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 – without Parliament’s approval – that more than 3 million people took to the streets in a nationwide strike.
And here in America, Donald Trump called the prosecutor pursuing him an "animal" and a "psychopath" and said any indictment would potentially lead to "death and destruction."
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It is indeed quite a contrast, especially with Trump’s most loyal supporters – not to mention most Republican officials – backing the former president in his war with Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg and saying they support him even more strongly.
And the criticism of Bragg’s weak Stormy Daniels hush money case has in recent days been drowned out by attacks on Trump’s conduct, not just from the Left.
Fox Business host Stuart Varney asked on his show: "Does the country support Trump wielding a baseball bat threatening mayhem and calling Alvin Bragg an animal? Is that what we want to see in a presidential candidate?"
"Fox & Friends" cohost Brian Kilmeade said yesterday it is "absolutely awful" and "insane" for Trump to heap praise on the Jan. 6 rioters.
And the conservative New York Post, owned by Rupert Murdoch, said: "He hasn’t changed in the slightest. There is no shame. After riling up rioters, cheering for a coup, and agreeing that his vice president needed to be hanged, he’s back to making violent threats against fellow Americans."
Even Trump’s lawyer, Joe Tacopina, said on "Meet the Press" that his client’s posting of himself with a baseball bat next to a picture of Bragg was "ill-advised."
All this is to set the stage for arguing that current polls showing Trump crushing Ron DeSantis are basically meaningless.
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Of course, Trump is the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primaries, and DeSantis, who had some stumbles last week, is untested as a national candidate.
But putting aside the fact that we don’t know whether Trump will head into the primaries battling one or more indictments, the latest polls don’t mean much.
Trump has a national lead, but primaries are a state-by-state marathon.
A new poll by National Opinion Strategies found the Florida governor leading Trump in Iowa, the first contest, 45% to 37%.
And in the next contest, New Hampshire, DeSantis and Trump are tied at 39%. Trump has higher negatives in both states.
Let’s say (for the sake of argument) that DeSantis, who’s not yet a declared contender, winds up beating the ex-president by 8 points in Iowa and has a photo finish in New Hampshire.
This will cause a media explosion. Trump the unbeatable will have been beaten. DeSantis will be hailed as a giant-killer. Yes, they’re both small and unrepresentative states, but it won’t matter. DeSantis will suddenly be viewed as a potential president (which in turn means more media scrutiny).
Some caveats: Trump lost the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz in 2016, but easily won the nomination. He argued that the Texas senator had stolen the state.
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Biden, for that matter, got clobbered in Iowa and New Hampshire, was written off by the press, and still managed to salvage the nomination and beat Trump.
I’m not arguing that a couple of early losses would sink Trump. But the momentum shift, as measured by media coverage and punditry, would be enormous. Such an outcome would almost give permission to Republicans elsewhere to back DeSantis if he seems a plausible winner.
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In the 1968 New Hampshire primary, Lyndon Johnson, who was only a write-in candidate, got 58% of the vote to 42% for insurgent Democrat Gene McCarthy – and that was enough to drive LBJ from the race by month’s end. I’m not suggesting that Trump would react in similar fashion.
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But if Trump loses the first state or two, it will take more than baseball-bat pictures for him to right the campaign ship.
