Harley-Davidson delivered fourth quarter results that exceeded Wall Street’s revenue expectations, though profitability remained under significant pressure. Management attributed this to deliberate efforts to reduce elevated dealer inventory, especially touring models in North America, and to targeted promotions intended to accelerate retail performance. CEO Arthur Starrs noted, “These actions are beginning to deliver results,” citing improved dealer profitability and positive rider response late in the quarter. However, the leadership team acknowledged that the quarter did not reflect the company’s full potential, highlighting the impact of both macroeconomic challenges and internal operational changes.
Is now the time to buy HOG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $496.2 million vs analyst estimates of $479.8 million (27.8% year-on-year decline, 3.4% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: -$2.44 vs analyst estimates of -$1.08 (significant miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$316.2 million (-63.7% margin, 87.6% year-on-year decline)
- Operating Margin: -72.8%, down from -28.1% in the same quarter last year
- Motorcycles Sold: 13,500, down 500 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $2.41 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Harley-Davidson’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Craig Kennison (Baird) questioned the lower-than-expected profitability outlook for Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). CFO Jonathan Root explained that lower wholesale assets and a cautious volume outlook are reducing near-term earnings, but expected income should triple over the next few years as the balance sheet rebuilds.
- Noah Zatzkin (KeyBanc Capital Markets) asked about the cadence of wholesale shipments and comfort with current inventory levels. Root outlined a measured approach with higher shipments in Q2 and a more back-loaded shipment pattern, while CEO Starrs reiterated the focus on maintaining healthy inventory and supporting dealers.
- Robin Farley (UBS) inquired about the assumptions behind flat global retail sales and the investment stance for LiveWire. Starrs confirmed that additional funding for LiveWire would be limited to the existing loan, and Root detailed enthusiasm for new model launches and price adjustments aimed at boosting retail performance.
- Tristan Thomas (BMO Capital Markets) sought clarity on the $150 million in annual cost savings. Starrs clarified that savings would be realized in the motor company and HDFS segments, with benefits beginning in the back half of the year and fully realized in 2027.
- James Hardiman (Citi) probed how expected wholesale growth reconciles with a near-flat operating income forecast for the motor company segment. Root cited full-year tariff exposure, ongoing operating deleverage, and supply chain impacts as key offsetting factors.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory analyst team will closely track (1) the pace of dealer inventory normalization and its impact on retail sales, (2) the effectiveness of new product launches and refreshed pricing strategies in driving demand, and (3) realization of targeted cost savings and progress on organizational restructuring. Additional attention will be paid to the May strategy update and ongoing developments in the HDFS business model.
Harley-Davidson currently trades at $20.41, up from $20.14 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
The Best Stocks for High-Quality Investors
If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.
Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
