Since July 2025, Allstate has been in a holding pattern, posting a small return of 0.9% while floating around $193.68. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500’s 8.2% gain during that period.
Is now the time to buy Allstate, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.
Why Is Allstate Not Exciting?
We don't have much confidence in Allstate. Here are three reasons you should be careful with ALL and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Projected Revenue Growth Is Slim
Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite.
Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Allstate’s revenue to rise by 1.4%, a deceleration versus its 9.7% annualized growth for the past two years. This projection doesn't excite us and indicates its products and services will face some demand challenges.
2. Growing BVPS Reflects Strong Asset Base
We consider book value per share (BVPS) a critical metric for insurance companies. BVPS represents the total net worth per share, providing insight into a company’s financial strength and ability to meet policyholder obligations.
Although Allstate’s BVPS increased by a meager 3.2% annually over the last five years, the good news is that its growth has recently accelerated as BVPS grew at an incredible 42.3% annual clip over the past two years (from $48.06 to $97.34 per share).
Final Judgment
Allstate isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares lagging the market recently, the stock trades at 1.8× forward P/B (or $193.68 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at a dominant Aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.
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