Carnival’s fourth quarter saw strong investor enthusiasm, despite sales missing Wall Street’s expectations. Management attributed the positive outcome to effective cost controls, robust onboard spending, and resilient booking trends across its global cruise brands. CEO Josh Weinstein highlighted, “We achieved historical fourth quarter highs for revenues, yields, operating income and EBITDA,” while noting that the company’s diversified portfolio enabled it to outperform in both North America and Europe, even amid lower consumer sentiment.
Is now the time to buy CCL? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Carnival (CCL) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $6.33 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.37 billion (6.6% year-on-year growth, 0.6% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.34 vs analyst estimates of $0.25 (38.6% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.48 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.37 billion (23.3% margin, 8.1% beat)
- Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $2.48 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 2.5%
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $7.63 billion at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $7.53 billion
- Operating Margin: 11.6%, up from 9.4% in the same quarter last year
- Passenger Cruise Days: 24.6 million, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $41.02 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Carnival’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Robin Farley (UBS) asked whether Carnival's 2026 guidance assumes continued acceleration in onboard spend and close-in demand. CEO Josh Weinstein responded that guidance reflects their best current expectations and that upside could materialize if momentum is sustained.
- Brandt Montour (Barclays) questioned if Carnival had prioritized volume over pricing in recent bookings. Weinstein clarified that revenue management is focused on maximizing total revenue per sailing and that the mix of short and longer itineraries across brands helps balance exposure.
- Matthew Boss (JPMorgan) sought details on how booking momentum and record-high pricing for North America and Europe are embedded in the 2026 outlook. Weinstein explained that the normalized yield guidance accounts for recent volatility and assumes continued strength, but no explicit stimulus impact.
- Elizabeth Dove (Goldman Sachs) inquired about the drivers of same-ship yield growth given limited new ship launches. Weinstein cited improved commercial execution, clearer brand messaging, and the appeal of bundled offerings as key contributors.
- Sharon Zackfia (William Blair) asked about changes in marketing strategy and spend in an evolving digital landscape. Weinstein noted a shift toward digital channels and AI-driven personalization, with marketing spend stable as a percentage of revenue but increasingly reallocated to performance marketing.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the pace of adoption and incremental revenue from new destinations like Celebration Key and RelaxAway, (2) evidence of sustained booking strength and pricing discipline, particularly as industry capacity expands in the Caribbean, and (3) the impact of ongoing cost control initiatives and digital marketing investments. Execution in these areas will be crucial for sustaining margin gains.
Carnival currently trades at $31.25, up from $28.33 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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