Wolters Kluwer: 48 of 49 Economists Surveyed Expect Interest Rate Cuts Before End of the Year

Blue Chip Economic Indicators also shows economists don’t expect U.S. national elections to impact timing of rate cuts

Wolters Kluwer has published the July 2024 issue of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds all but one of the panel’s leading economists anticipating a Fed rate cut before the end of 2024. The forecast arrives amidst signs that the economy and inflation are both slowing as the labor market moves into better balance.

Since 1976, Blue Chip Economic Indicators has offered reliable monthly forecasts sourced from an expert panel of economists that are employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, and insurance companies.

Highlights include:

• Most economists (55%) anticipate that the first Fed rate cut will take place at the September FOMC meeting, down from 64% in the June survey. Another 23% expect the first cut in November and 20% in December, both up from last month.
• A vast majority of economists (77%) don’t expect that the timing of the Fed’s rate decisions will be influenced by the U.S. national elections in November.
• The consensus forecast calls for PCE inflation to slow further in Q3 before hovering around 2.1% and 2.2% over the rest of the forecast period. This would place it just slightly above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Economists forecast only a slight increase in the unemployment rate as GDP slows to below trend. The consensus looks for the quarterly average to rise to 4.1% by year’s end and then to 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2025.

Each month’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus – or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the unemployment rate.

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About Wolters Kluwer

Wolters Kluwer (EURONEXT: WKL) is a global leader in information, software solutions and services for professionals in healthcare; tax and accounting; financial and corporate compliance; legal and regulatory; corporate performance and ESG. We help our customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with technology and services.

Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion. The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400 people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands.

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