PitchBook, the premier data provider for the private and public equity markets, recently released an expanded suite of Private Capital Return Barometers. The Barometer models now encompass five private capital strategies: Private Equity (PE), Venture Capital (VC), Private Debt, Infrastructure, and Natural Resources, offering investors more timely insights into private market performance. PitchBook will update the Private Capital Return Barometers monthly, providing continual insights to aid investors in tracking evolving market dynamics.
Historically, private market participants have had limited visibility into returns due to the inherent lag in closed-end fund reporting. PitchBook’s Barometers address this issue by nowcasting returns based on a linear regression framework using macroeconomic and market fundamental indicators, providing investors with current, actionable insights well in advance of traditional reported returns. The Barometers provide a score on a 0 to 100 scale to gauge the return environment, where a neutral score of 50 reflects an expectation of average returns for each asset class.
"The expanded suite of Barometers is designed to support allocators in better navigating today’s rapidly evolving private capital landscape," said Daniel Cook, Head of Quantitative Research at PitchBook. "By covering multiple strategies and highlighting potential inflection points, we’re empowering investors to make informed decisions that anticipate private capital performance trends."
The Q3 2024 Barometer readings as of September reflect stable market conditions, with most asset classes remaining within a neutral range. Highlights include:
- PE Barometer: Neutral reading of 42, implying a quarterly return of 3.0%.
- VC Barometer: Neutral reading of 42, with an implied quarterly return of 2.1%.
- Private Debt Barometer: Neutral reading of 39, suggesting an estimated quarterly return of 1.6%.
- Infrastructure Barometer: Neutral reading of 55, indicating a 2.7% implied quarterly return.
- Natural Resources Barometer: Negative reading of 27, with an implied quarterly return of -2.6%.
The Q4 2024 Allocator Solutions Report, published earlier this month, showcases case studies from past periods of market volatility, illustrating the Barometers’ potential to predict directional shifts in private market returns based on macro fundamentals. This data-driven approach equips allocators to respond proactively to market changes, helping them anticipate potential divergences between reported returns and broader economic indicators.
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About PitchBook
PitchBook is a financial data and software company that provides transparency into the capital markets to help professionals discover and execute opportunities with confidence and efficiency. PitchBook collects and analyzes detailed data on the entire venture capital, private equity and M&A landscape—including public and private companies, investors, funds, investments, exits and people. The company’s data and analysis are available through the PitchBook Platform, industry news and in-depth reports. Founded in 2007, PitchBook operates globally with more than 3,000 team members. Its platform, data and research serve over 100,000 professionals around the world. In 2016, Morningstar acquired PitchBook, which now operates as an independent subsidiary.
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